Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
